Security Threats
Assignment Instructions
Based upon a fictitious organization of your choosing, you are to offer insight regarding three identified threats, where one must come from each of the three broad threat/hazard groups of natural, technological/accidental, and adversarial/human-caused risks. (For additional information and examples, refer to the Strategic National Risk Assessment). Regarding these threats, you are to provide details that address the following activities that will collectively produce a comprehensive security plan. In addition, highlight issues that you feel are in need of attention by the security industry to adequately deal with such risks moving forward.
Contingency Planning
Business Continuity Planning
Crisis Management Activities
Business Recovery Efforts
TECHNICAL GUIDANCE:
This assignment should be a six (6) page report(not includingtitlepage and reference list).
Provide at least six (6) scholarly sources in your paper.
Type in Times New Roman, 12 point and double space.
Studentswill follow the APA 6 Style as the sole citation and reference style used in written work submitted as part of coursework for this class. Seehttp://www.apus.edu/content/dam/online-library/resources-services/Fuson_2012_APA.pdf
Points will be deducted for the use of Wikipedia or encyclopedic type sources. It is highly advised to utilize: books, peer reviewed journals, articles, archived documents, etc. (may be electronic of course and the APA manual lists all the types of possible resources and reference formats, hinthint), and valid web sites (use caution with these).
Strategic National Risk Assessment December 2011
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The Strategic National Risk Assessment in Support of PPD 8: A
Comprehensive Risk-Based Approach toward a Secure and Resilient Nation
Overview
The Strategic National Risk Assessment (SNRA) was executed in support of Presidential Policy
Directive 8 (PPD-8), which calls for creation of a National Preparedness Goal, a National
Preparedness System, and a National Preparedness Report. Specifically, national preparedness is
to be based on core capabilities that support strengthening the security and resilience of the
United States through systematic preparation for the threats that pose the greatest risk
1
to the
security of the Nation, including acts of terrorism, cyber attacks, pandemics, and catastrophic
natural disasters.
As part of the effort to develop the National Preparedness Goal and identify core capabilities, the
Secretary of Homeland Security led an effort to conduct a strategic national risk assessment to
help identify the types of incidents that pose the greatest threat to the Nations homeland
security. Representatives from the offices of the Director of National Intelligence and the
Attorney General, as well as other members of the Federal interagency, supported this effort.
The assessment was used:
To identify high risk factors that supported development of the core capabilities and
capability targets in the National Preparedness Goal;
To support the development of collaborative thinking about strategic needs across
prevention, protection, mitigation, response, and recovery requirements, and;
To promote the ability for all levels of Government to share common understanding and
awareness of National threats and hazards and resulting risks so that they are ready to act
and can do so independently but collaboratively.
The subsequent pages provide an overview of the unclassified findings and the analytic approach
used to conduct the SNRA. It should be emphasized, however, that although the initial version
of the SNRA is a significant step toward the establishment of a new homeland security risk
baseline, it contains data limitations and assumptions that will require additional study, review,
and revision as the National Preparedness System is developed. These limitations are discussed
below, and future iterations of the assessment are expected to reflect an enhanced methodology
and improved data sets.
Strategic National Risk Assessment Scope
To inform homeland security preparedness and resilience activities, the SNRA evaluated the risk
from known threats and hazards that have the potential to significantly impact the Nations
homeland security. These threats and hazards were grouped into a series of national-level events
with the potential to test the Nations preparedness.
1
The DHS Lexicon defines risk as the potential for an unwanted outcome resulting from an incident, event, or occurrence, as
determined by its likelihood and the associated consequences. Accessed at: http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/dhs-risk-lexicon-
2010.pdf
Strategic National Risk Assessment December 2011
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SNRA participants including Federal agencies, DHS Components, and the intelligence
community, among others developed a list of national-level events (see Table 1) for assessment
in the initial SNRA. The events are grouped into three categories: 1) natural hazards; 2)
technological/accidental hazards; and 3) adversarial, human-caused threats/hazards. For the
purposes of the assessment, DHS identified thresholds of consequence necessary to create a
national-level event. These thresholds were informed by subject matter expertise and available
data. For some events, economic consequences were used as thresholds, while for others,
fatalities or injuries/illnesses were deemed more appropriate as the threshold to determine a
national-level incident. In no case, however, were economic and casualty thresholds treated as
equivalent to one another (i.e., dollar values were not assigned to fatalities). Event descriptions in
Table 1 that do not explicitly identify a threshold signify that no minimum consequence
threshold was employed. This allows the assessment to include events for which the
psychological impact of an event could cause it to become a national-level event even though it
may result in a low number of casualties or a small economic loss. Only events that have a
distinct beginning and end and those with an explicit nexus to homeland security missions were
included. This approach excluded:
Chronic societal concerns, such as immigration and border violations, and those that are
generally not related to homeland security national preparedness, such as cancer or car
accidents, and;
Political, economic, environmental, and societal trends that may contribute to a changing
risk environment but are not explicitly homeland security national-level events (e.g.,
demographic shifts, economic trends). These trends will be important to include in future
iterations of a national risk assessment, however.
Table 1: SNRA National-Level Events
Threat/
Hazard
Group
Threat/Hazard
Type
National-level Event Description
Natural
Animal Disease
Outbreak
An unintentional introduction of the foot-and-mouth disease
virus into the domestic livestock population in a U.S. state
Earthquake An earthquake occurs within the U.S. resulting in direct
economic losses greater than $100 Million
Flood A flood occurs within the U.S. resulting in direct economic
losses greater than $100 Million
Human Pandemic
Outbreak
A severe outbreak of pandemic influenza with a 25% gross
clinical attack rate spreads across the U.S. populace
Hurricane A tropical storm or hurricane impacts the U.S. resulting in
direct economic losses of greater than $100 Million
Space Weather The sun emits bursts of electromagnetic radiation and energetic
particles causing utility outages and damage to infrastructure
Tsunami A tsunami with a wave of approximately 50 feet impacts the
Pacific Coast of the U.S.
Volcanic Eruption A volcano in the Pacific Northwest erupts impacting the
surrounding areas with lava flows and ash and areas east with
smoke and ash
Wildfire A wildfire occurs within the U.S. resulting in direct economic
losses greater than $100 Million
Strategic National Risk Assessment December 2011
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Threat/
Hazard
Group
Threat/Hazard
Type
National-level Event Description
Technological/
Accidental
Biological Food
Contamination
Accidental conditions where introduction of a biological agent
(e.g., Salmonella, E. coli, botulinum toxin) into the food
supply results in 100 hospitalizations or greater and a multi-
state response
Chemical Substance
Spill or Release
Accidental conditions where a release of a large volume of a
chemical acutely toxic to human beings (a toxic inhalation
hazard, or TIH) from a chemical plant, storage facility, or
transportation mode results in either one or more offsite
fatalities, or one or more fatalities (either on- or offsite) with
offsite evacuations/shelter-in-place
Dam Failure Accidental conditions where dam failure and inundation results
in one fatality or greater
Radiological
Substance Release
Accidental conditions where reactor core damage causes
release of radiation
Adversarial/
Human-
Caused
Aircraft as a Weapon A hostile non-state actor(s) crashes a commercial or general
aviation aircraft into a physical target within the U.S.
Armed Assault A hostile non-state actor(s) uses assault tactics to conduct
strikes on vulnerable target(s) within the U.S. resulting in at
least one fatality or injury
Biological Terrorism
Attack (non-food)
A hostile non-state actor(s) acquires, weaponizes, and releases
a biological agent against an outdoor, indoor, or water target,
directed at a concentration of people within the U.S.
Chemical/Biological
Food Contamination
Terrorism Attack
A hostile non-state actor(s) acquires, weaponizes, and disperses
a biological or chemical agent into food supplies within the
U.S. supply chain
Chemical Terrorism
Attack (non-food)
A hostile non-state actor(s) acquires, weaponizes, and releases
a chemical agent against an outdoor, indoor, or water target,
directed at a concentration of people using an aerosol,
ingestion, or dermal route of exposure
Cyber Attack against
Data
A cyber attack which seriously compromises the integrity or
availability of data (the information contained in a computer
system) or data processes resulting in economic losses of a
Billion dollars or greater
Cyber Attack against
Physical
Infrastructure
An incident in which a cyber attack is used as a vector to
achieve effects which are beyond the computer (i.e., kinetic
or other effects) resulting in one fatality or greater or economic
losses of $100 Million or greater
Explosives Terrorism
Attack
A hostile non-state actor(s) deploys a man-portable improvised
explosive device (IED), Vehicle-borne IED, or Vessel IED in
the U.S. against a concentration of people, and/or structures
such as critical commercial or government facilities,
transportation targets, or critical infrastructure sites, etc.,
resulting in at least one fatality or injury
Strategic National Risk Assessment December 2011
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Threat/
Hazard
Group
Threat/Hazard
Type
National-level Event Description
Nuclear Terrorism
Attack
A hostile non-state actor(s) acquires an improvised nuclear
weapon through manufacture from fissile material, purchase, or
theft and detonates it within a major U.S. population center
Radiological
Terrorism Attack
A hostile non-state actor(s) acquires radiological materials and
disperses them through explosive or other means (e.g., a
radiological dispersal device or RDD) or creates a radiation
exposure device (RED)
The SNRA participants identified the events listed in Table 1 as those with the potential to pose
the greatest risk to the security of the Nation and formed the analytic basis of the SNRA. In
some cases, tornados may also become national-level events that pose significant risk. Table 1 is
not a complete list of risks that exist and will be reconsidered in future iterations of the
assessment. Additional threats and hazards, such as droughts, heat waves, winter storms, rain
storms, and different types of technological/accidental or human-caused hazards, can also pose a
risk to jurisdictions across the country and should be considered, as appropriate, in preparedness
planning. Non-influenza diseases with pandemic potential and other animal diseases should also
be considered. In addition, assessment participants identified a number of events for possible
inclusion in future iterations of the SNRA, including electric grid failure, plant disease outbreak,
and transportation system failure.
Overarching Themes to an All-Hazards Approach
The results of the SNRA are largely classified and include a comparison of risks for potential
incidents in terms of the likelihood (calculated as a frequencyi.e. number of events per year)
and consequences of threats and hazards, as well as an analysis of the uncertainty associated with
those incidents.
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The assessment finds that a wide range of threats and hazards pose a significant
risk to the Nation, affirming the need for an all-threats/hazards, capability-based approach to
preparedness planning. Overarching themes include:
Natural hazards, including hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, wildfires, and floods,
present a significant and varied risk across the country.
A virulent strain of pandemic influenza could kill hundreds of thousands of Americans,
affect millions more, and result in economic loss. Additional human and animal
infectious diseases, including those previously undiscovered, may present significant
risks.
Technological and accidental hazards, such as dam failures or chemical substance spills
or releases, have the potential to cause extensive fatalities and have severe economic
impacts, and the likelihood of occurrence may increase due to aging infrastructure.
2
The full results of the SNRA are classified.
Strategic National Risk Assessment December 2011
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Terrorist organizations or affiliates may seek to acquire, build, and use weapons of mass
destruction. Conventional terrorist attacks, including those by lone actors employing
explosives and armed attacks, present a continued risk to the Nation.
Cyber attacks can have their own catastrophic consequences and can also initiate other
hazards, such as power grid failures or financial system failures, which amplify the
potential impact of cyber incidents.
These findings supported the development of the core capabilities, as well as the establishment
of capability targets for the Goal. In addition to the above findings articulated in the National
Preparedness Goal, the SNRA found that:
Many events have the potential to occur more than once every 10 years, meaning that the
Nations preparedness will likely be tested in this decade.
Although historic events provide a useful perspective on homeland security risks, the
changing nature of society and the risk landscape means that the Nation must also be
prepared for new hazards and threats or for events that result in greater consequences
than have occurred in the past.
Within an all-hazards preparedness context, particular events that present risk to the
Nationsuch as nuclear attacks or chemical releasesrequire additional specialized
response activities.
Some events, such as explosives attacks or earthquakes, generally cause more localized
consequences, while other events, such as human pandemics, may cause consequences
that are dispersed throughout the Nation, thus creating different types of impacts for
preparedness planners to consider.
Analytic Approach
The SNRA drew data and information from a variety of sources, including existing Government
models and assessments, historical records, structured analysis, and judgments of experts from
different disciplines. The information was used to assess the risk of identified incidents as a
function of frequency
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and consequencespecifically, With what frequency is it estimated that
an event will occur, and what are the consequences of the incident(s) if it does occur?
The SNRA examined the consequences associated with six categories of harm: loss of life,
injuries and illnesses, direct economic costs, social displacement, psychological distress, and
environmental impact. This multi-faceted view of potential consequences draws attention to the
broad and often interdependent effects of incidents that require whole of community preparation
and cooperation across the homeland security enterprise. For instance, community resilience
relates to both mitigating human and economic consequences and addressing the psychological
and social distress caused by the incident within the community. Similarly, other types of
resilience involve withstanding environmental and infrastructure degradations to ensure that
essential services continue to be delivered.
3
Frequency was used in the SNRA to capture likelihood because some events have the potential to occur more than
once a year.
Strategic National Risk Assessment December 2011
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The SNRA relied on the best available quantitative estimates of frequency and consequence from
existing Government assessments, peer-reviewed literature, and expert judgment. Where
sufficient quantitative information was not availablesuch as data related to the frequency of
high-consequence space weatherevents were assessed qualitatively. The estimates of the
frequency and consequences for each of the events considered were compared where
appropriate. No effort was made to create a single risk judgment for any event type because it
was deemed infeasible to aggregate all consequence types into a single metric. Instead, the
assessment treated consequence categories separately (i.e., economic consequences are reported
separately from fatality consequences). This allowed stakeholders to apply their own expert
judgments to the findings and decide how those findings should inform core capability targets in
the Goal.
All sources and estimates were documented to promote credibility, defensibility, and
transparency within the assessment. Uncertainty in frequency and consequences was explicitly
included in the analysis by representing low and high bounds in addition to best estimates.
Examples of sources of uncertainty include incomplete knowledge of adversary capabilities and
intent, variability in possible event severity and location, and lack of historical precedence.
Because the assessment was performed at a strategic national level, it provided the ability to
draw rough comparisons of the assessed eventswithin an order of magnitudeto view the
broad differences in risk across events. Given the uncertainty inherent in assessing risks at a
national level and the lack of information about some of the events includedmany of which are
likely to occur very infrequentlythe assessment was designed to avoid false precision. Instead,
the assessment identifies only those differences in risk that are still significant despite the
associated uncertainties.
Limitations
The analysis of available informationeven if that analysis is imprecise and contains a wide
degree of uncertaintysupports better decision making, as long as key limitations and
assumptions are noted. Participants designed the SNRA to capture the best information the
Nation has about homeland security risks to support the development of the National
Preparedness Goal while recognizing the limitations of conducting such analysis in a shortened
time frame.
This is a strategic national risk assessment. As such, it does not present a full view of the
risk facing local communities. To complement preparedness planning, it is necessary to
consider national and regional risks, many of which differ from region to region.
Given PPD-8s emphasis on contingency events with defined beginning and endpoints
(e.g. hurricanes, terrorist attacks), the current SNRA does not explicitly assess persistent,
steady-state risks like border violations, illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and
intellectual property violations, which are important considerations for DHS and the
homeland security enterprise.
Information about the frequency and consequences of the events included in the SNRA is
at varying stages of maturity, with additional work required in some areas to ensure that
event data can be appropriately compared. Where substantial additional research is
warranted, events are discussed qualitatively and are not compared with other events.
Strategic National Risk Assessment December 2011
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The SNRA methodology does not explicitly model the dynamic nature of some of the
included hazards. For example, terrorists evolving tactics in response to changes in
defensive posture are not included.
Experts consulted about psychological consequences emphasized caution in the
application of the SNRAs measure of psychological distress, and stressed the need for
additional research. The Department of Homeland Security and its partner organizations
leveraged previously funded social and behavioral research to better understand how to
anticipate, prepare for, counteract, and mitigate the effects of terrorist acts, natural
disasters, and technological accidents. Additional research is required to further explore
psychosocial factors that enable resilience in individuals, organizations, and communities
and at the societal level.
For national-level events where historic data was used as the basis of analysis, the risk
from low-likelihood, high-consequence incidents may not be adequately captured. This
is particularly true for technological/accidental hazards. Further study is needed to better
characterize these risks at the national strategic level.
Impacts and Future Uses
The SNRA was executed in support of PPD-8 implementation and has served as an integral part
of the development of the National Preparedness Goal, assisting in integrating and coordinating
identification of the core capabilities and establishing a risk-informed foundation for the National
Preparedness System. Participants mapped the core capabilities identified in the Goal to the
events assessed in the SNRA to identify any additional core capabilities that may need to be
included. In addition, the SNRA can be used to inform discussions on priorities for capability
investment decisions. Finally, the SNRA results will be used to drive other preparedness
priorities at the national level.
In addition, conducting a Strategic National Risk Assessment will support the National
Preparedness System by providing a consolidated list of national level events for consideration
and augmentation for Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment processes at
multiple jurisdiction levels.
Conclusion
Although the development of the SNRA is an important first step, further analysis through the
execution of regional- and community-level risk assessments will help communities better
understand their risks and form a foundation for their own security and resilience. The Nations
preparedness is dependent on a whole-of-community understanding of risk and comprehensive
consequences at and across all levels of government. In conjunction with Federal, state, local,
tribal, and territorial partners, the SNRA will be expanded and enhanced and will ultimately
serve as a unifying national risk profile to facilitate preparedness efforts. APUS Assignment Rubric Lower Level
Undergraduate 300-400 Courses
Updated: June 2017
Full Rubric for Classroom Publication
School of Security and Global Studies Rubric Features
Rubric categories are evenly distributed 20 points per category.
Assignment settings equal 100 points for each assignment.
Grade book is set for weighted categories (not points).
Separate rubrics in 100-200, 300-400, 500-600 level courses for assignments.
Standard forum discussion rubric for all levels.
Quick Table for Insertion in Assignments (within Word document)
Criteria
Exemplary 16-20
Accomplished 11-15
Developing 6-10
Beginning 0-5
Total
Focus/Thesis
Content/Subject Knowledge
Critical Thinking Skills
Organization of Ideas/Format
Writing Conventions
Total
Focus/Thesis 20 points
Beginning
Exhibits a limited understanding of the assignment. Reader is unable to follow the logic used for the thesis and development of key themes. Introduction of thesis is not clearly evident, and reader must look deeper to discover the focus of the writer. Students writing is weak in the inclusion of supporting facts or statements.
Developing
Student exhibits a basic understanding of the intended assignment, but the thesis is not fully supported throughout the assignment. While thesis helps to guide the development of the assignment, the reader may have some difficulty in seeing linkages between thoughts. While student has included a few supporting facts and statements, this has limited the quality of the assignment.
Accomplished
Establishes a good comprehension of topic and in the building of the thesis. Student demonstrates an effective presentation of thesis, with most support statements helping to support the key focus of assignment.
Exemplary
Student exhibits a defined and clear understanding of the assignment. Thesis is clearly defined and well-constructed to help guide the reader throughout the assignment. Student builds upon the thesis of the assignment with well-documented and exceptional supporting facts, figures, and/or statements.
______________________________________________________________________________
Content/Subject Knowledge 20 points
Beginning
Student tries to explain some concepts, but overlooks critical details. Assignment appears vague or incomplete in various segments. Student presents concepts in isolation, and does not perceive to have a logical sequencing of ideas.
Developing
The assignment reveals that the student has a general, fundamental understanding of the course material. There are areas of some concerning in the linkages provided between facts and supporting statements. Student generally explains concepts, but only meets the minimum requirements in this area.
Accomplished
Student exhibits above average usage of subject matter in assignment. Student provides above average ability in relating course content in examples given. Details and facts presented provide an adequate presentation of students current level of subject matter knowledge.
Exemplary
Student demonstrates proficient command of the subject matter in the assignment. Assignment shows an impressive level of depth of students ability to relate course content to practical examples and applications. Student provides comprehensive analysis of details, facts, and concepts in a logical sequence.
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Critical Thinking Skills 20 points
Beginning
Student demonstrates beginning understanding of key concepts, but overlooks critical details. Learner is unable to apply information in a problem-solving fashion. Student presents confusing statements and facts in assignment. No evidence or little semblance of critical thinking skills.
Developing
Student takes a common, conventional approach in guiding the reader through various linkages and connections presented in assignment. However, student presents a limited perspective on key concepts throughout assignment. Student appears to have problems applying information in a problem-solving manner.
Accomplished
Student exhibits a good command of critical thinking skills in the presentation of material and supporting statements. Assignment demonstrates the students above average use of relating concepts by using a variety of factors. Overall, student provides adequate conclusions, with two or fewer errors.
Exemplary
Student demonstrates a higher-level of critical thinking necessary for 300-400 level work. Learner provides a strategic approach in presenting examples of problem solving or critical thinking, while drawing logical conclusions which are not immediately obvious. Student provides well-supported ideas and reflection with a variety of current and/or world views in the assignment. Student presents a genuine intellectual development of ideas throughout assignment.
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Organization of Ideas/Format 20 points
Beginning
Assignment reveals formatting errors and a lack of organization. Student presents an incomplete attempt to provide linkages or explanation of key terms. The lack of appropriate references or source materials demonstrates the students need for additional help or training in this area. Student needs to review and revise the assignment.
Developing
Learner applies some points and concepts incorrectly. Student uses a variety of formatting styles, with some inconsistencies throughout the paper. Assignment does not have a continuous pattern of logical sequencing. Student uses fewer sources or references than required by assignment. Academic sources are lacking.
Accomplished
Student explains the majority of points and concepts in the assignment. Learner demonstrates a good skill level in formatting and organizing material in assignment. Student presents an above average level of preparedness, with a few formatting errors. Assignment contains number of academic sources required in assignment.
Exemplary
Student thoroughly understands and excels in explaining all major points. An original, unique, and/or imaginative approach to overall ideas, concepts, and findings is presented. Overall format of assignment includes an appropriate introduction (or abstract), well- developed paragraphs, and conclusion. Finished assignment demonstrates students ability to plan and organize research in a logical sequence. Student uses required number of academic sources or beyond.
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Writing Conventions (Grammar and Mechanics) 20 points
Beginning
Topics, concepts, and ideas are not coherently discussed or expressed in assignments. Students writing style is weak and needs improvement, along with numerous proofreading errors. Assignment lacks clarity, consistency, and correctness. Student needs to review and revise assignment.
Developing
Assignment reflects basic writing and grammar, but more than five errors. Key terms and concepts are somewhat vague and not completely explained by student. Student uses a basic vocabulary in assignment. Students writing ability is average, but demonstrates a basic understanding of the subject matter.
Accomplished
Student provides an effective display of good writing and grammar. Assignment reflects students ability to select appropriate word usage and present an above average presentation of a given topic or issue. Assignment appears to be well written with no more than three-five errors. Student provides a final written product that covers the above-minimal requirements.
Exemplary
Student demonstrates an excellent command of grammar, as well as presents research in a clear and concise writing style. Presents a thorough and extensive understanding of word usage. Student excels in the selection and development of a well-planned research assignment. Assignment is error-free and reflects students ability to prepare a high-quality academic assignment.
